Finally – the NCAA tournament begins…
Once the teams have finished the season, played their tournaments, selected, and seeded – it’s time to “play ball” and the official NCAA tournament begins. It will take 6 rounds from the First Four to the Final Four to get to the National Championship and it will take 3 weeks from the first game. Higher seeded teams play lower seeded teams. Higher seeded teams get their ranking from wins, RPIs, polls, and interpretation of the data (or so it seems). Generally the higher seeded teams should advance, while the lower ranked teams fall out. However, this is not always the way. Remember, most of the lower ranked teams are “at large” teams so their stats are not as good as the regional winners. For each round, the number of teams advancing is cut in half, until we are left with just one.
Again we are going to look back at the data from 2013 and 2014 to see if it will tell us anything about the 2015 tournament. In 2013 and 2014:
- More at large teams overall progressed than the regional winners.
- However, when it came down to the final game, in 2013 the tournament winner was a regional winner.
- In 2014, the tournament winner was an “at large” team.
- In 2013 the winner was from the Midwest region;
- While in 2014 the winner came from the East!
- Neither the South nor the West has brought home the “gold”. So does this mean it’s their turn this year or will they be “0 and 3”?
Another fact that was clear when looking at the data: (Teams with seeds greater than 8 who advanced past the first round).
Fewer than 14.7% and 11.8% teams, respectively advanced past the first couple of rounds and none won the tournament.
Who takes home the tournament award in 2015…
So who has the best chance this year? Well it depends on who you ask. Looking at the chart below it is easy to see where the issues will start even before Selection Sunday. We’ll be updating the 2015 information as soon as the announcements are made. Don’t forget to fill out your own bracket and see if you are better than the “professionals”.
So if you are planning on completing a bracket here are a few tips:
- Use your head, not your heart. If your favorite team is not seeded above 9, chances of them winning the tournament are pretty low,
- The South and West do not seem to be in it for the long haul either,
- “At Large” teams have just as good a chance of winning as the “Winners”,
- No matter the statistics, there can always be a “dark horse” that comes from behind!!!
Stay tuned for our next installment with our predictions. Screamin Designs is just as interested in March Madness as you are so we’ll be playing along as well.